Football Betting Update

“Mystical” Mike Norman urges Betfair punters to stop over-analysing England and just look at what’s staring at everyone in the face - Croatia are the higher-ranked, better-organised, more successful side…

A win is a win as they say. In terms of accumulating points, many England fans will argue that the manner of victory over Andorra was irrelevant. But, in terms of inspiring confidence, Saturday night’s poor performance doesn’t bode well for England going into the game against Croatia - especially with so many pointers stacked against them.

Betfair’s ‘Match Odds’ market has Croatia at [2.5], England at [3.4] and the draw at [3.2] - an England victory is the least fancied of the three…. and rightly so.

One pointer that I’ve been banging on about for weeks now is England’s dreadful recent record against nations ranked higher than them in the FIFA World Ranking. It’s been nine games since the Three Lions last won one of these matches. England are down in 15th in FIFA’s latest list (behind Turkey and Cameroon) whilst Croatia are ranked 5th (ahead of Brazil and Argentina).

Often when punting on an England match we get bogged down with trying to analyse England too much. Sometimes, like in this case, the answer is staring us right in the face - and that answer is that right now, Croatia are a better team than England. They qualified for Euro 08, England didn’t. Croatia have beaten England the last two times they have met. They are officially ranked higher, as stated above. And finally, Croatia have one of the best home records in international football - just one defeat at the Maksimir Stadium in 18 years (39 games).

When you consider Croatia’s only home defeat came at the hands of then World Champions’ France in 2000, you start to realise what a formidable team they are in front of their hostile supporters - and what an enormous task England have on Wednesday evening.

On the face of it, a Croatia victory looks appealing at [2.5], but confidence in opposing England is always tainted with the knowledge that Fabio Capello has an extremely talented bunch of individuals at his disposal. On their day (which are few and far between) they can beat anyone, and for that reason I’d much rather back Croatia to win group six at [1.92] (England are [2.12]) as a long term option than back them on Wednesday, only to see England put in a breathtaking performance.

England will probably slip up a few times with tough trips to the Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus to come after Wednesday night’s (arguably the toughest of the lot), while they don’t look at all confident playing in front of the expectant Wembley crowd. On the other hand, Croatia are rock solid on home soil and have a far more consistent look about them on the road than England do.

But back to Wednesday’s match and the question of how many goals will be scored? In their last four meetings, England and Croatia have mustered up a total of 17 goals between them. Going on this form, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ ([2.56]) and ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ ([5.0]) will appeal to many, and to be honest, I wouldn’t put anyone off these bets. Croatia’s superior technical play will always threaten goals, while England’s ‘potential’ also has to be considered.

Personally I’d bring back Joe Cole on the left - this is no slight on Stewart Downing’s part, it’s simply down to Cole being a bigger threat at the moment. Obviously Rio Ferdinand will come in for Joleon Lescott while I’m hoping that Theo Walcott retains his place on the right wing. I wouldn’t be averse to playing Emile Heskey from the start with either Wayne Rooney or Jermaine Defoe. England will start the game conservatively, but with Cole, Walcott and Heskey in the team, not only will they have outlets, they will have some attacking threat also.

I’ve already said I think Croatia will win, and I will reluctantly stick with that, but if England play the way we know they can then anything can happen. I’d be delighted with a draw, and a correct score of either 1-1 ([7.2]) or 2-2 ([21.0]) will line plenty of pockets. A repeat of Croatia’s 2-0 victory over England in the Euro qualifier can be backed at [13.5], while my own personal choice is a 2-1 win for the home team - this can be backed at [12.5].

Unlike many, I think this will be an open game with each side netting at least once. Therefore I’m opposing the clean sheets - if you disagree let me know why. The ‘Croatia Clean Sheet’ odds are [2.82] for ‘Yes’, [1.5] for ‘No’, the ‘England Clean Sheet’ odds are [3.05] for ‘Yes’, [1.36] for ‘No’.